La Niña has officially returned to the Pacific, and while its presence often signals wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest, the Bay Area’s forecast remains mixed. According to AccuWeather and the National Weather Service, this year’s La Niña appears weak, meaning its typical impacts, cooler, wetter conditions in the north and drier weather in the south—may not play out as strongly.

For the Bay Area, the storm track is expected to shift slightly north, favoring Oregon and Washington with more rainfall, while Northern California could see fewer major storms. NOAA’s latest seasonal outlook shows a 33–40% chance of below-normal precipitation from December through February, and temperatures may trend slightly warmer than average, especially along the coast.

Despite the mild forecast, officials caution that La Niña winters are highly variable, a single atmospheric river could still bring significant rainfall or flooding, even in a drier season overall.

Residents are encouraged to stay prepared for changing conditions: clear storm drains, maintain defensible space, and stock up on sandbags before heavy rains arrive. Whether this winter turns dry or delivers surprise downpours, readiness remains the Bay Area’s best defense.

The Southern Marin Fire District strongly encourages residents to prepare for upcoming winter storms, power outages, and all high tide events. We recommend that residents prepare themselves and their property from the possibility of wind and water damage. Visit our Flooding and Winter Storm resource page for preparedness tips.

Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, AccuWeather, National Weather Service.